The pattern may be broken. Famous for the consistency with which it has alternated between the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in every successive Assembly election, Kerala may create history this time by not staying true to its swinging ways.
According to a post-poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and the Week there is no clear cut winner in Kerala, but the LDF has slight edge in terms of seats and vote share. Although neither of them is decisive enough for Kerala Chief Minister and Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader VS Achuthanandan to sit easy.
The LDF is likely to win between 69 and 77 seats with the UDF a close behind bagging 63-71 seats.
It was widely perceived that the ruling LDF has its back to the wall and is battling to buck the trend of alternate fronts coming to power once in every five years. But Achuthanandan sounded confident of winning the Assembly elections for the second term during the campaign. And he may well have reasons to smile.
When the elections were announced, Kerala appeared all set for a boring repetition of a three-decade old cycle of oscillation of power in each election. There were some reports of V S Achutanandan’s having turned things around for the Left, but not many took this seriously. In a lighthearted vain I called it a conspiracy of the Malayali media to create suspense where none existed. The findings of the CSDS survey team led by Dr Sajjad Ibrahim show how uninformed such comments made by people sitting in Delhi can be.
The survey shows that the Left Front government enjoys a fairly decent approval rating, and not just among traditional LDF supporters. V S Achutanandan leads the popularity charts for Chief Minister’s position, way ahead of the Congress’s Oommen Chandy or any of his rivals in his own party. A suggestion that this 87-year-old leader may be too old to hold the CM’s position is dismissed vehemently, even by those below 25. It also hints at a more fundamental transformation in the political landscape of the state.
Slowly but surely, the proportion of ‘unattached voters’ has gone up in the state, thus creating a space for an open-ended judgment on the performance of government, detached from the iron law of alteration of government. We cannot be sure that the 30-year-old pattern will be reversed this time, but this possibility cannot be ruled out.
The edge that LDF seems to enjoy is because of the good work it has done in the field of electricity supply, drinking water, quality of education in government schools and medical facilities in government hospitals. While an overwhelming 83 per cent of voters are satisfied with the Achuthanandan government on the issue of electricity; drinking water (74 per cent satisfied), education in government schools (73 per cent satisfied), facilities in government hospitals (72 per cent satisfied) give the Front some breathing space vis a vis the UDF.
Even of the law and order front the government has done a decent job with 70 per cent of voters of giving their thumbs up despite the rise of fundamentalist groups in the last few years.
However, all is not lost for the UDF as the close nature of the contest and the penchant of the Indian voter to spring surprises means that there is still a ray of hope. Moreover, the Congress-led Front would be hoping that Kerala’s famed political roulette will bring it back to power.
The UDF is hoping to bag a hat-trick after its impressive victories in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and the 2010 civic elections by highlighting corruption issues related to the present government. While it has made significant progress in narrowing the six per cent gap between its and LDF’s vote share during the 2006 Assembly polls to just one per cent this time around, its leaders would be praying that the slight advantage of 46 per cent to 45 per cent in favour of the LDF does not translate into a numerical superiority in terms of Assembly seats.
If the survey turns out to be on target, it will reverse the good showing by the Congress-led Front during the 2009 Lok Sabha elections where it won 16 seats out of 20 in the state. Some UDF leaders have been boasting that they would sweep the elections like they did in 2001 when the Front won 99 seats out of 140, but given the close race it seems unlikely that either alliance will cross the halfway-mark comfortably.
The Communists are no pushover in Kerala and have had a long association with the state. They first come to power with the first legislative Assembly of Kerala way back on March 16, 1957. It was the first time in the history of the world that a Communist party had come to power after winning an election. EMS Nampoothiripad as the chief minister.
Since then Kerala is one of the handful of states in India where the Communists have enjoyed power on and off.
However, the state is highly polarised politically where even a marginal swing could turn the tide either way. When the election dates were announced the popular feeling was that the LDF is on its way out. But the ruling coalition got a big boost after the end of uncertainty over Achuthanandan’s entry. He now seems to have taken the fight to the UDF camp in his characteristic aggressive style.
The electoral battle has been intense in all 140 segments, with no wave palpable in favour of either LDF or UDF.
As the 971 candidates who are in the fray in the state wait for the results, the country holds its breath to know if the Kerala voters have stayed true to the stereotype or have some surprises in store
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